Supplementary Materials of
"What Happens Depends on When It Happens: Copula-based Ordered Event History Analysis of Civil War Duration and Outcome"
Journal of the American Statistical Association, forthcoming

Kentaro Fukumoto
Kentaro.Fukumoto@gakushuin.ac.jp
January 25, 2015

APPENDICES

See "appendices.pdf".

REPLICATION

Application:
Launch the statistical environment, R.
Set the working directory at "replication/application".
Run "analyze.specification1.r". You will obtain Table 1 and Figures 3 through 5. (This file calls "boot.Rdata", which can be produced by running "bootstrap.specification1.r".
Since this bootstrap takes 6 weeks, however, I recommend you do not do this by yourself. Below, (*) refers to the previous sentence.)
Run "copula.sample.r" (with "gsl" package installed). You will obtain Figures 1, 2, and A.1.
Run "AUC.r" (with "cgs_mult.dta" located). You will obtain Figure 6. (This file calls "AUC.Rdata", which can be produced by running "AUC.background.r".  Since it takes a month in the case of my computer, however, I recommend you do not do this by yourself.)
Run "MNL.r" (with "cgs_mult.dta" located). You will obtain Table C.1.
Run "analyze.specification2.r" and "analyze.specification3.r". You will obtain Tables C.2 and C.3. (These files call "boot.four.Rdata" and "boot.both.Rdata", which can be produced by running "bootstrap.specification2.r" and "bootstrap.specification3.r", respectively. (*)) 
Run "AIC.summarize.r". You will obtain Table C.4. (This file calls "AIC.logit.Rdata" and "AIC.probit.Rdata", which can be produced by running "AIC.logit.r" and "AIC.probit.r", respectively.  Since it takes 30 hours in the case of my computer, however, I recommend you do not do this by yourself. Below, (**) refers to the previous sentence.)
The original publication version of the data file "cgs_mult.dta" is included in the "application" directory by courtsy of the authors of the repliacted article. It is archeived at
http://jcr.sagepub.com/content/53/4/570/suppl/DC1
Its latest updated version is avaiable at
http://privatewww.essex.ac.uk/~ksg/eacd.html

Monte Carlo Simulation:
Launch the statistical environment, R.
Set the working directory at "replication/MC".
Run "analyze.MC.r". You will obtain Figures B.1, B.4, B.6, and B.7. (This file calls "MC.normal.Rdata", which can be produced by running "do.MC.unit.publish.r". (**))
Run "short.censor.r". You will obtain Figure B.2. (This file calls "MC.censor.Rdata", which can be produced by running "do.MC.unit.publish.EHA.censor.r". Since it takes time, however, I recommend you do not do this by yourself.)
Run "time.para.r". You will obtain Figure B.3. (This file calls "MC.normal.Rdata" and "MC.publish.EHA.Rdata", the latter of which can be produced by running "do.MC.unit.publish.EHA.r". Since it takes time, however, I recommend you do not do this by yourself.)
Run "Figure.B5.r". You will obtain Figure B.5.
